Notes on the Science of Extreme Situations

Notes on the Science of Extreme Situations, Paper No. 15

SERIAL DISASTERS: FIRST THOUGHTS

by Walter G. Green III

Copyright 2004 by Walter G. Green III. All rights reserved. Permission to reproduce copies for instructional use and individual copies for personal use as needed is granted to University faculty, researchers, and students.

(1) In the process of entering data for individual disaster incidents in the Disaster Database Project (Green 2004), I have been forced to think about disasters in different ways. At the macro level, this process has driven consideration of disaster taxonomy (Green and McGinnis 2002); at the micro level, it has led to the application of qualitative content analytical techniques (Miles and Huberman 1994) to individual events. As a result, I have become convinced that we collectively, as a discipline, have missed interesting threads of commonality that deserve attention – specifically in the serial nature of some types of disasters.

(2) The concept of serial killers is well accepted in the study of crime. This model describes the behaviors of individuals who repeatedly kill other human beings. Although there is some considerable variability in definitions, a composite of academic (Lippit 1996; Jenkins 1994; Egger 1990) and common (The Free Dictionary 2004; Word IQ 2004) definitions of serial killing, also termed serial murder or multicide, would include:

Killing of 2 or 3 or 4 or more victims, one at a time, with each event setting the stage for the next event.
Murders are separated by 72 hours or more, or by a relatively short time period, or by months or years.
Victims are typically previously unknown to the killer.
Similar methods may be employed by the killer.
Victims are often powerless or marginal people distinguished from the population by age, gender, or ethnicity.
Killings are separated by periods of normalcy.
The geographical area of the killings is vaguely defined in some cases, and in some cases may be wide, but is in most cases relatively limited in area.
Linkages between the cases and the victims may be difficult to identify.
And as a result there may be a questionable number of cases, or even reasonable question as to whether a serial killer is responsible.

(3) While developing the Disaster Database Project at the University of Richmond, I came to the realization that there are similarities between some types of series of disasters and the work of serial killers. It may be worthwhile to start thinking about serial disasters in much the same way we think about serial killers. Although the criteria do not exactly coincide, it appears on initial examination that there are surprising commonalities, shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Commonalities Between Serial Murder and Serial Disasters

Serial Murder Criteria:	Serial Disaster Application:
Fatalities	Disasters tend to either kill very few or very many people. Those that are killers, such as tropical cyclones or earthquakes in the developing world, tend to repetitively kill large numbers of people.
Multiple events	It is relatively easy to identify multiple events within closely related categories of disasters, and to identify such events in which there is substantial destruction and substantial numbers of deaths. In some cases first events clearly presage a series of events.
Time separation	Disaster events may be relatively frequent and oriented to specific seasons – shipping accidents on the Great Lakes, for example. However, frequency decreases as the level of jurisdiction impacted becomes more local – thus a nation may experience a large number of disasters of all types during a year, while a rural county may experience disaster scale events once a decade.
Previously unknown to killer	Because disasters are not sentient, it is tempting to say this is applicable. However, there are sufficient repeat killer events in identical places (Bangladesh and tropical cyclones, for example), that this cannot be said to be absolute. In most cases, however, the victim is not identical (the Soviet submarine K-19 being an example of an exception).
Similar methods	Disasters can be easily classified or characterized by specific and general causation and by type of impact. In most cases the name of the event identifies the general similarity of the event to others of the same type.
Victims powerless	Social class, employment, race, gender, age, ethnicity, and economic class all serve as predictors of increased vulnerability to disasters.
Separated by periods of normalcy	Although the life cycle of disaster events is not completely understood, programmatically it is often accepted that disasters have a clear impact, response phase, and recovery phase, after which some level of normalcy is restored.
Geographical area	There are clearly specific disaster zones associated with specific types of disasters – the Ring of Fire for earthquakes and Volcanoes providing a clear example. However, in some cases the area is poorly defined and may be continental or even global in scope.
Difficulty in identifying linkages	Because disaster events happen in a wide variety of nations, there is not necessarily a comprehension of the repetitive nature of specific types of events. In some cases - national prestige, commercial interests, political factors, etc. – there may be clear disincentives to identify a linkage. In some of the cases examined in thinking about this issue, survivor families and labor organizations identified linkages prior to any action by the owners or organizations charged with oversight responsibility.
Questionable number of cases	There is not a clear consensus as to what a disaster is, with great variability between legal, academic, commonly used, and activity specific definitions. In some cases events that appear to be disasters are accepted as the cost of doing business in spite of their significant impact. Therefore, defining the number of cases is difficult.

(4) It seems that not every series of disasters fits neatly into the serial mode – in some cases certain types of events simply happen with a noticeable frequency. What then separates such recurring disasters from serial disasters? I suggest that it is the element of avoidability, probably most easily quantified in terms of mitigation and preparedness measures. Tornadoes on the Western Plains and in the South of the United States are an annual event. Man has reduced their impact by improved warning systems, the construction of shelters, and public education. As a result they continue to happen, but the death toll is comparatively light. Similarly, even events that provide very little warning - earthquakes in California in the United States for example – produce limited death tolls and relatively controlled damage as a result of building codes, drills, adequate response resourcing, and extensive public education.

(5) In contrast, earthquakes in the developing world would appear to be serial disasters. Bam in Iran in 2003 with 27,000 dead is only the latest in a series that reaches its zenith in numbers at Tangshan with a fatality count that may have exceeded 750,000 dead. Similarly, hurricanes that strike the United States are probably not serial events – tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal seem certainly to have had serial characteristics (Green 2004). Table 2 suggests examples of events that may meet serial disaster criteria based on preliminary case searches in the Disaster Database Project.

Table 2. Examples of Possible Serial Disaster Event Categories

Type of Event:	Characteristics:
Merchant Vessel Sinkings	FATALITIES: high percentage of fatalities, although individual cases have low numbers of fatalities, now typically under 50. SIMILAR METHODS: often associated with structural failure in severe weather. DIFFICULTY IN IDENTIFYING LINKAGES: common to certain classes of old vessels and of very large vessels, registered in different nations, and although the percentage of sinkings by class and age is high, the total number of vessels involved is low. QUESTIONABLE NUMBER OF CASES: often associated with sudden disappearance and uncertainty.
Tunnel Accidents	FATALITIES: high percentage of fatalities. SIMILAR METHODS: same population - common to highway, rail, tramway, and subway tunnels; common failure causes - often complicated by operator error or system design. VICTIMS POWERLESS - trapped populations unable to flee. DIFFICULTY IN IDENTIFYING LINKAGES: it is not immediately obvious that rail, road, and subway tunnel fires in a wide variety of countries have similar causation or impacts.
Developing World Earthquakes	FATALITIES: catastrophic numbers of fatalities. MULTIPLE EVENTS: repetitive events over time in certain areas of high seismic activity. TIME SEPARATION: seismic activity even in highly active areas tends to be in decades or centuries. GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: in related locations over time. VICTIMS POWERLESS: often accentuated by either traditional building practices or absent or unenforced building codes.
Ferry Sinkings	FATALITIES: high percentage of fatalities and in some cases very large death tolls. MULTIPLE EVENTS: high frequency of events in the developing world. GEOGRAPHICAL AREA: distribution in both the developing and developed worlds, although clustered in countries with poorly developed road and air transport systems.

Source: Green 2004

(6) To demonstrate that the use of the term “serial” is correct, additional qualitative and quantitative research on the incidence and characteristics of these events in the macro sense is required. This includes determining whether a specific type of disaster can be both serial and non-serial in nature, what makes one population into serial events, and how these can be distinguished from other events of the same type. Although demonstrating that serial disasters exist is not necessarily a step toward their control, it may at least contribute to clarifying the nature and extent of the problem such events may pose.

WORKS CITED:

Egger, Steven A. editor. Serial Murder: An Elusive Phenomenon. New York, New York, United States of America; Praeger Publishers; 1990.

Green, Walter G., III, Ph.D., University of Richmond. The Disaster Database Project. location https://cygnet.richmond.edu/is/esm/disaster/, University of Richmond School of Continuing Studies, 1 March 2004.

Green, Walter G., III, Ph.D., University of Richmond, and Suzanne R. McGinnis, Academic Technology Consultant, University of Richmond. “Thoughts on the Higher Order Taxonomy of Disasters.” Notes on the Science of Extreme Situations. Paper Number 7. location http://www.richmond.edu/~wgreen/PAPER7.pdf, University of Richmond School of Continuing Studies, September 2002.

Jenkins, Philip, Professor of History and Religious Studies, Pennsylvania State University. Using Murder: The Social Construction of Serial Homicide. New York, New York, United States of America; Aldine de Gruyter; 1994.

Lippit, Akira Mizuta. “The Infinite Series: Fathers, Cannibals, Chemists.” Criticism. Volume 38, Issue 3; Wayne State University Press; 1996; page 351.

Miles, Matthew B. and A. Michael Huberman. Qualitative Data Analysis: An Expanded Sourcebook. 2nd edition. Thousand Oaks, California, United States of America, Sage Publications, 1994.

“Serial killer,” The Free Dictionary. location http://www.thefreedictionary.com/serial%20killer; accessed 5 February 2004.

“Serial killer.” Word IQ. location http://www.wordiq.com/cgi-bin/knowledge/lookup.cgi?title=Serial_killer; accessed 5 February 2004.